{"id":518,"date":"2017-05-03T14:14:27","date_gmt":"2017-05-03T14:14:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/phoenixglobalgroup.com\/mi-katigoriopoiimeno\/signs-are-pointing-to-a-looming-slowdown-in-global-trade-growth\/"},"modified":"2024-02-27T09:52:05","modified_gmt":"2024-02-27T09:52:05","slug":"signs-are-pointing-to-a-looming-slowdown-in-global-trade-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/phoenixglobalgroup.com\/el\/nea\/signs-are-pointing-to-a-looming-slowdown-in-global-trade-growth\/","title":{"rendered":"Signs are pointing to a looming slowdown in Global Trade Growth"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Signs are pointing to a looming slowdown in global trade growth, according to Morgan Stanley.<\/p>\n

Each component of the bank\u2019s proprietary global trade leading indicator — save for the U.S. dollar — declined in April to mark back-to-back drops for the index, which is used to forecast real activity with a one-month lead.<\/p>\n

“Business sentiment, crude oil, commodity prices and Baltic Dry Index shipping rates all pulled the index lower,” said a team led by economist Elga Bartsch. “If [the] Morgan Stanley global trade leading indicator declines three times in a row, we will likely have established a new downtrend in global merchandise trade dynamics.”<\/p>\n

Morgan Stanley anticipates a short divergence between its leading indicator and global trade volumes (measured by the CPB World Trade Monitor), estimating that the latter will still rise at about a 10 percent pace year-over-year for May. Going forward, however, negative base effects are likely to amplify the headwinds of “less favorable trends in commodity prices, the U.S. dollar and shipping rates.”<\/p>\n

In an ironic twist, Donald Trump\u2019s election victory — following a campaign with clear protectionist overtones amid a retreat in shipping activity worldwide —\u00a0coincided with a sharp acceleration in global trade<\/a>\u00a0that carried through to the first quarter of 2017 and beyond.<\/p>\n

“As the strong trade data from Q1 rolls in think now clear \u2019deglobalization\u2019 of last 2 ys a function of China\u2019s slowdown and commodity shock,” Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow Brad Setser said on\u00a0Twitter<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Now, not only trade, but another key tenet of the global reflation thesis is poised to fade.<\/p>\n

“Global growth has moved from boiling to merely simmering,” wrote Credit Suisse Group AG analysts led by James Sweeney in a May 2 note. “We estimate that global industrial production momentum (3m\/3m annualized growth rate) has fallen from a 5 percent January peak to under 4 percent in April.”
\nCredit Suisse expects industrial production momentum to continue to wane, with the growth rate falling to 3 percent this summer.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Source:\u00a0https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2017-05-03\/global-trade-growth-is-about-to-slow-morgan-stanley-says<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Signs are pointing to a looming slowdown in global trade growth, according to Morgan Stanley. 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