{"id":739,"date":"2019-01-02T11:35:05","date_gmt":"2019-01-02T11:35:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/phoenixglobalgroup.com\/mi-katigoriopoiimeno\/global-supply-chain-pricing-may-face-new-pressures-in-2019\/"},"modified":"2024-02-27T09:52:06","modified_gmt":"2024-02-27T09:52:06","slug":"global-supply-chain-pricing-may-face-new-pressures-in-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/phoenixglobalgroup.com\/el\/nea\/global-supply-chain-pricing-may-face-new-pressures-in-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"Global supply chain pricing may face new pressures in 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"
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By Patrick Burnson, Executive Editor \u00b7 January 2, 2019<\/p>\n

The global economy started 2018 with strong, synchronized growth, but the momentum faded as the year progressed and growth trends diverged. Notably, the economies of the eurozone, the United Kingdom, Japan and China began to weaken. In contrast, the U.S. economy accelerated, thanks to fiscal stimulus.<\/p>\n

According to\u00a0Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at\u00a0IHS Markit<\/a>, growth in the U.S. will remain \u201cabove trend,\u201d while other key economies will experience further deceleration. As a result, he predicts that global growth will edge down from 3.2% in 2018 to 3.0% in 2019\u2014and will keep eroding over the next few years.<\/p>\n

\u201cOne major risk in the coming year is the sharp drop-off in world trade growth, which fell from a pace of above 5% at the beginning of 2018 to nearly zero at the end,\u201d says Behravesh. \u201cThe risk of an escalation in trade conflicts remains elevated. If such an escalation were to occur, a contraction in world trade could slow the world economy even more. At the same time, the sell-off in equity and commodity markets, on top of the gradual removal of accommodation by some central banks, means that financial conditions worldwide are tightening.\u201d<\/p>\n

Combined with heightened political uncertainty in many parts of the world, these risks point to the increased vulnerability of the global economy to further shocks and the greater probability of a recession in the next few years. However, IHS Markit analysts note that chance of recession in 2019 is still relatively low.<\/p>\n

Supply chain managers may face mixed blessings on the domestic front, based on estimates about sustainable growth in the labor force and productivity next year. IHS Markit assesses the potential growth in the U.S. economy to be around 2.0%. In 2018, U.S. growth was a well above trend at 2.9%, compared with only 2.2% in 2017.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe acceleration was almost entirely due to a large dose of fiscal stimulus with tax cuts and spending increases put in place at the beginning of the year,\u201d says Behravesh.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe impact of this stimulus will still be felt in 2019, but with diminishing potency as the year progresses.\u201d<\/p>\n

Consequently, IHS Markit expects growth of 2.6% this year, which is less than in 2018, but still above trend. They believe that, by 2020, the effects of stimulus will have fully dissipated, ushering in a new level of maturation. Economists add that over the next year, there are likely to be \u201ccountervailing pressures\u201d leading to a plateau.<\/p>\n

\u201cOn the downside, housing has been a disappointment, the dollar has been rising, credit conditions are tightening, and higher tariffs could still hurt growth,\u201d adds Behravesh.<\/p>\n

\u201cOn the upside, interest rates are still low, and fiscal stimulus is still aiding expansion. For the balance of 2019, U.S. economic fundamentals remain fairly solid.\u201d<\/p>\n

Considerably less solid, however, is the energy outlook, says\u00a0Derik Andreoli, Ph.D.c, director of economic research and forecasting at\u00a0Mercator International\u00a0and the \u201cOil and Fuel\u201d columnist for Logistics Management<\/a>\u00a0– SCMR\u2019s sister publication.\u00a0 \u201cEnergy markets have never looked more uncertain,\u201d he says, \u201cand uncertainty is the mother of volatility. Our industry is facing a number of critical unknowns.\u201d<\/p>\n

Chief among them, says Andreoli, is on the supply side of the equation. Shippers are eager to learn the extent of threats made by OPEC and Russia (OPEC+) to follow through on recent agreements to cut oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day. \u201cWe don\u2019t know yet if shale producers alone will be able to lift production at a rate that\u2019s commensurate with rising global demand,\u201d he adds.<\/p>\n

On the oil demand side of the equation, the question remains how long the developing world\u2014which has accumulated massive amounts debt denominated by the U.S. dollar\u2014will respond to rising U.S. interest rates and a potentially steep increase in the value of the dollar.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs oil is traded in U.S. dollars, rising interest rates will erode the purchasing power of other countries, which should suppress global oil demand growth somewhat, but not enough to ease oil price pressures,\u201d says Andreoli. In short, oil production cuts should push prices up over the first half of 2019. And like last year, this cost should rise from around $50 per barrel in January to around $70 per barrel sometime in the first quarter.<\/p>\n

\u201cOver the second quarter, oil prices should continue to rise as domestic shale oil producers struggle to meet the forecasting pressures put on logistics managers charged with balancing all modes,\u201d adds Andreoli. \u201cDemand for all refined products will increase in price, too.\u201d<\/p>\n

Source:
\nhttps:\/\/www.logisticsmgmt.com\/article\/global_supply_chain_pricing_may_face_new_pressures_in_2019_say_experts<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Patrick Burnson, Executive Editor \u00b7 January 2, 2019 The global economy started 2018 with strong, [\u2026]<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[27],"class_list":["post-739","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-nea","tag-2019-el"],"yoast_head":"\nGlobal supply chain pricing may face new pressures in 2019 - PHOENIX GLOBAL FREIGHT GROUP S.A. - Since 1991<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/phoenixglobalgroup.com\/el\/nea\/global-supply-chain-pricing-may-face-new-pressures-in-2019\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"el_GR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Global supply chain pricing may face new pressures in 2019 - 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